Seasonal characteristics and time series analysis of hepatitis E in Shanghai from 2005 to 2019 / 上海预防医学

Objective:To analyze the seasonal characteristics and incidence trend of hepatitis E from 2005 to 2019 in Shanghai， and provide references for the prevention and treatment of hepatitis E. Methods:The seasonal characteristics of hepatitis E in Shanghai from 2005 to 2019 were analyzed by circular distribution method. The incidence trend of hepatitis E was analyzed by ARIMA （autoregressive moving average model）. Results:The peak period of hepatitis E in Shanghai from 2005 to 2019 was from November 17 to June 9， and the peak day was on February 27. The time series shows that the optimal model is SARIMA（0，1，1）×（0，1，1）12， Akaike information criterion（AIC） and Schwartz Bayesian information criterion （SBC） are 1 243.799 and 1 250.035 respectively， and the residual is white noise sequence. The mean absolute percentage error（MAPE）between the predicted value， and the actual value of this model is 20.253%. The forecast shows a slight decrease in the number of cases of hepatitis E in 2020-2021 compared with 2019， but it is still at a high level. Conclusion:The incidence of hepatitis E in Shanghai shows a solid seasonal characteristic. Health education and prevention/control measures should be conducted well before the epidemic peak. Based on the short-term prediction， the incidence of hepatitis E would still be high. Effective prevention and control strategies should be developed， and active measures should be taken.

Prevalence and risk factors on the resistance related to second-line drugs among multi-drug resistant tuberculosis cases in Shanghai, China / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To determine the prevalence and risk factors on second-line drug resistance in patients with multidrug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) in Shanghai,China.Methods All pulmonary TB patients with sputum culture positivity detected in Shanghai during January to December,2009,were enrolled.All of the pretreatment sputum-positive cultures samples were tested for routine specimen identification and routine drug susceptibility testing for first-line drugs (Isoniazid,Rrifampin,Ethambutol and Streptomycin).Drug susceptibility testing on second-line anti-TB drugs (Ofloxcin,Amikacin,Kanamycin,Capreomycin,P-aminosalicylic acid and Prothionamide) was routinely performed on isolates of Mycobacterium (M.) TB with MDR.Logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine the risk factors regarding second-line drug resistance.Results A total of 1867 patients infected with M.TB isolates were diagnosed at the TB hospitals/clinics in Shanghai during the study period,of whom 112 (6.0％) were MDR-TB,in which 58 cases (51.8％) showed resistant to at least one of the second-line drugs tested and 10 cases belonged to extensively drug-resistant.In the multivariate analyses,MDR-TB patients who were aged 45-59 years (aOR=4.76,P=0.001 ),with sputum smear positivity (aOR=6.51,P=0.026) were significantly more likely to show resistance to second-line drugs.Conclusion The prevalence of second-line drug resistance among MDR-TB patients was high in Shanghai.MDR-TB patients who were under age of 45-59 years and with sputum smear positivity would represent important common risk factors for the resistance to second-line drugs.

The prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) subtypes in Chinese HIV-1/HCV co-infected individuals / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To better understand the prevalence and geographic distribution of genotypes/subtypes on HCV and the relationship between HCV genotypes/subtypes and HIV infection disease progression in the HIV-1/HCV co-infected individuals living in high HIV-1 prevalent areas in China. Methods 186 plasma samples were collected from HIV-1 seropositive individuals infected through paid blood donors (PBD), injecting drug users (IDUs) or sexual contact, living in most severely affected provinces, Henan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Jilin and Liaoning provinces. Samples with HCV viral load >1000 cop/ml were amplified by RT-nested PCR, sequenced and phylogenetically analyzed for genotyping/subtyping of HCV. HIV-1, HCV viral loads and CD4 T lymphocytes were measured for all subjects. Results (1) HCV were identified as 1 a (1.7%), 1 b (39.9%), 2a (17.9%), 3a (10.4%), 3b (15.6%), 6a (1.2%), 6n (6.4%), and a newly unclassified subtype (7.5%). HCV 2a and lb subtypes predominated in PBD in Henan, 3a and 3b in IDUs in Xinjiang and Yunnan, and 6 genotype/subtypes in IDU in Yunnan. (2) There were no significant differences in CD4 T cell counts among the different HCV subtypes. (3) The viral load of HCV RNA in lb subtype was higher than that of non-1b subtype, however, no significant differences in HIV-1 viral loads and CD4 T cell counts were found between Ib and non-1b subtype. Both HIV and HCV viral loads were lower in 2a than non-2a subtype. Conclusion The prevalence of HCV genotype/subtype in HIV-1/FICV co-infected individuals was associated with geographic areas and transmission routes. HCV subtypes had no direct correlation with HIV infection disease progression.

Study on using the multiplier method in estimating the size of men who have sex with men population in Shanghai / 中华流行病学杂志

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To estimate the size of men who have sex with men (MSM) in Shanghai.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Multiplier method was used in the study and two popular Shanghai-based MSM websites were selected as targeted institutions. The number of MSM (r) who visited website during a given period was investigated by a web-based questionnaire. Meanwhile, a survey was conducted among MSM living in Shanghai to obtain the proportion of MSM who had visited the websites during the given period, the reciprocal number of this proportion was the multiplier (m), therefore, population size can be estimated by r multiplied by m.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The MSM population was estimated as 398 433 when website A was selected as target institution and 370 755 was estimated when website B was selected. The estimated population of MSM accounted for 7.1% and 6.6% of male population aged 15 to 49 years old in Shanghai, respectively.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>It was feasible to use multiplier method which selecting MSM website as target institution to estimate the size of MSM population, however, the representativeness of this study sample should be considered seriously.</p>

Experimental chemotherapy against xenografts derived from multidrug resistant KBv200 cells and parental drug-sensitive KB cells in nude mice by annonaceous acetogenin 89-2 / 药学学报

<p><b>AIM</b>Annonaceous acetogenin 89-2 was obtained from atemoya plant. To investigate the effect of 89-2 on experimental chemotherapy against xenografts derived from multidrug resistant KBv200 cells and parental drug-sensitive KB cells.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Cytotoxicity was determined by tetrazolium (MTT) assay. The models of KB and KBv200 xenografts in nude mice were established to investigate the effect of 89-2 on experimental chemotherapy against cancer in vivo. Mechanistic experiments were conducted to examine the function of P-gp by Fura 2-AM assay.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The compound 89-2 showed potent cytotoxicity in KBv200 and KB cells, and the mean IC50 of 89-2 to KBv200 and KB cells was 48.7 and 64.6 nmol.L-1, respectively. The IC50 of 89-2 to multidrug resistant (MDR) cells was similar to that to the parental drug-sensitive cells (P < 0.05). In the models of KBv200 and KB cell xenografts in nude mice, 89-2 (0.90 mg.kg-1, q2d x 6) exhibited 52.3% and 56.5% in inhibiting the growth of xenografts, respectively. The toxicity was endurable. The intracellular accumulation of Fura-2 in KBv200 cells increased to 1.66, 2.03, and 2.74-fold, respectively, by addition of 12.8, 64 and 320 nmol.L-1 of 89-2.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>Both MDR KBv200 cells and parental drug-sensitive KB cells were sensitive to the treatment of 89-2 in vitro and in vivo. The mechanism of overcoming MDR was associated with the decrease of P-gp function MDR cells.</p>

A molecular epidemiological survey of 114 newly diagnosed HIV-1-infected persons from Shanghai / 中华传染病杂志

Objective To clarify the genetic diversity of HIV-1 strains currently circulating in Shanghai and establish the molecular epidemiological database of HIV-1 infection.Methods The samples from 114 newly diagnosed HIV-l-infected individuals between June 2004 and June 2005 were investigated.HIV-1 pol gene(protease 1-99 aa and reverse transcriptase 1-252 aa) from plasma sam- ples were amplified by RT-PCR,sequenced and phylogenetieally analyzed.Protease inhibitors(PRIs) and reverse transcriptase inhibitors (RTIs) resistance-associated mutations in protease (PR) and re- verse transcriptase(RT) regions were analyzed.Results (1)Epidemiological survey showed the exist ence of different modes of transmission of HIV-1 including sexual contacts 51(44.74%),intravenous drug users 43 (37.72%),contaminated blood/blood products transfusion 3(2.63%) and unknown in- fection 17(14.91%);(2)Phylogenetic analysis revealed that 9 of the analyzed sequences were identi- fied as subtype B(7.89%),15 as subtype B'(13.16%),1 as subtype C(0.88%),1 as subtype G (0.88%),38 as CRF01 AE(33.33%),46 as CRF07 BC(40.35%) and4 asCRF08 BC(3.51%); (3)Analysis of drug-resistance associated mutation showed that 21 of 114 (18.42%) persons infected with drug-resistant HIV-1,among which major mutations in PR and RT regions accounted for 2.63 (3/114) and 17.54% (20/114),respectively.The frequencies of major mutation in PR region were M46I(66.67%),M46L(33.33%) and in RT region were M41L(7.69%),A62V (7.69%),T69S (7.69%),V75I/L(15.38%),K103R(25.00%),V118I(23.08%),V179D/E/T(33.33%),G190R (8.33%),L210K/M/X(38.46%),227L/I(16.67%),M230R(8.33%),P236R(8.33%).Conclusions The results revealed the current presence of multiple HIV-1 subtypes and recombinants strains infec- ting residents and migrants living in Shanghai.The broad diversity of HIV-1 has been introduced into Shanghai mainly through drug injection and heterosexual contacts.This study also revealed that HIV-1 strains infecting these newly diagnosed treatment-naive persons have acquired major mutations in both PR gene and RT gene of HIV-1.